What makes this forecast different?

Author: Orcas ConsultingInvalid Date

Keywords: coastal modeling, wave forecast, bathymetry, buoy data, oceanography, marine weather

Conventional wave models are great at predicting large-scale swell patterns, but they often fall short when it comes to the dynamic, complex environment of the nearshore—where most of us actually interact with the ocean.

Our forecast takes a different approach, built from the ground up with coastal users in mind. Whether you're a surfer, a lifeguard, a harbor operator, or a beachgoer, here's why this model provides a more accurate and meaningful view of local wave conditions.

🧭 Built for the Coastline, Not Just the Open Ocean

Most global models use grids that span tens or even hundreds of kilometers between points. This might work offshore, but coastal wave behavior is far more localized—affected by cliffs, headlands, bays, sandbanks, reefs, and harbors.

Our model resolves wave behavior down to a much finer scale, incorporating:

  • 🏖️ Detailed shoreline geometry — including coves, estuaries, and man-made structures.
  • 🗺 High-resolution bathymetric data — seabed contours that dramatically affect wave shoaling, refraction, and breaking.
  • 🌊 Local wave transformation algorithms — customized for the surf zone and harbor environments.

📡 Smarter, Sharper Observation Points

Traditional models rely on offshore buoy data, often miles away from where people actually enter the water. These buoys measure deep-water swell that doesn't reflect how waves transform closer to land.

We take it further:

  • 📍 Higher density of observation points — positioned closer to beaches, inlets, and surf spots.
  • 🧪 Buoy-calibrated nearshore points — validated against real-time coastal measurements.
  • 🧠 Machine learning tuning — aligns model outputs with historic observations for more accurate nowcasts and short-term predictions.

🗺 High-Resolution Bathymetry: A Game Changer

The shape of the seafloor—called bathymetry—plays a critical role in how waves behave as they approach the coast. Gradual shelves, steep drop-offs, submerged reefs, and channels all affect wave height, direction, and speed.

Our model integrates:

  • ✅ Bathymetric data down to 10-meter resolution (or finer in key areas).
  • ✅ Updated from multiple sources including LIDAR, sonar, and satellite-based datasets.
  • ✅ Dynamic adjustments to account for seasonal sediment shifts and dredging.

🔍 Why It Matters

Imagine the difference between a 1.5-meter clean swell wrapping perfectly into a sheltered bay… versus the same 1.5-meter swell closing out at a nearby exposed beach. The same offshore forecast means very different experiences onshore.

By understanding the nearshore zone in detail, our model helps:

  • 🏄 Surfers find the right break at the right tide.
  • 🛟 Lifeguards assess rip current risks more accurately.
  • ⚓ Port operators plan safer docking operations.
  • 🧭 Coastal engineers simulate erosion and overtopping events.

🚀 The Bottom Line

Our forecast doesn't just tell you what's happening far out to sea—it brings the ocean closer to the coast, where every headland, sandbar, and swell angle matters.

If you're someone who lives by the water, works on it, or plays in it, you’ll feel the difference.


We’re not just predicting waves. We’re forecasting experience—at the shore, where it counts.